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Another Tokyo State of Emergency in August likely

By on June 10, 2021

The epidemiological analysis on Wednesday shows Tokyo may need to issue another state of emergency in August even if vaccinations of  those 65 and up is completed by the end of July.

The case count of severely ill COVID-19 patients in Tokyo is seen rising to Stage 4 levels, the worst on Japan’s coronavirus alert scale. Based on the analysis by Kyoto University professor Hiroshi Nishiura,  UK and other strains could continue to spread  if Tokyo lifts the current state of emergency on June 20 as scheduled, similar to what happened in Osaka during the fourth wave of infections in spring.

The results of the analysis were presented at a meeting of Japan’s health ministry advisory board. In the analysis, the average number of people a person infects was estimated to be at 1.7.

If 50 percent of  hospital beds were secured for severely ill patients, Tokyo will be considered to be on Stage 4. The analysis projects occupancy rate to hit the 70 percent mark.

In such a scenario, Tokyo will be put in another state of emergency by early August to continue until mid-November.

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